Seiko Black Dial Stainless Steel Men's Watch SUR051

WORLDTEMPUS - 9 August 2012

Before proceeding to determine the variables in any given watch's value equation, you must be certain you are dealing with an authentic watch. For the rest of this article, we'll take a watch's authenticity as a given.
The first variable in the value equation is exclusivity. Exclusivity has two drivers: price and rarity. For example, the Patek Philippe Sky Moon Tourbillon is the most complicated wristwatch offered by what many consider to be Geneva's top brand. The watch depicts the nighttime sky over Geneva and offers a tourbillon. Patek Philippe produced slightly more than a handful of these marvels, which cost more than one million dollars each at the time of their introduction. Naturally, this watch is both expensive and rare, and it is the most exclusive watch that I can think of. An uncomplicated Patek Philippe Calatrava costs between $20,000 and $30,000 bought from an official Patek Philippe dealer, while an annual calendar like Reference 5146 in gold is priced at $42,400. A Rolex Datejust in stainless steel bought from an official dealer is priced at around $7,000, while a legendary Daytona chronograph in steel - if you can find one - is $12,295. A quartz Seiko watch with perpetual calendar on a steel bracelet will be priced around $260 at retail. The bottom line is that exclusivity is inversely correlated to production levels, which is reflected in price.

Of course, we are discussing vintage watches in this article and not new watches. However, I have found that the more exclusive a watch was when it was new also determines how rare the watch becomes as it enters the vintage domain later.
Retail pricing matters less as time goes by. A great example of this is the Rolex "Paul Newman" Daytona from the 1970s. At the time, the now highly collectable Paul Newman dials were called "exotic" by Rolex and were only available by special order. The Daytonas of the period were priced around $775. No one wanted them - well, not many people at least. Flash forward to today's market: a Paul Newman Daytona will sell for between $60,000 and $135,000 depending on model number and presence of original box and papers. While exclusivity of a watch when it is new has a direct relationship to its price, retail pricing matters less and less as time goes by. Market price, however, contributes directly to a watch's exclusivity.

The second variable in the value equation is: is the watch original? If you are new to collecting, you may need an explanation of authenticity versus originality. Authenticity means the watch was produced by the company whose name brand appears on the dial (and usually also on the inside of the case and on the movement). A counterfeit watch is made to deceive someone into believing the product is something other than what it is. An original watch means all of the parts of the watch left the manufacturer's factory as one integral whole.
Originality has many shades of grey. The most collectable watches still have all of their original parts: dial, hands, case, movement and bracelet or strap (including buckle). Ideally, an original watch will also be accompanied by its box and papers. However, as the years go by, parts on many watches wear out, get corroded, get swapped out by well-meaning watchmakers, and so on.
It's not at all unusual for a vintage watch to have a dial that has been re-painted, luminous elements re-applied, or in some manner be restored or modified. These interventions usually have innocent explanations. The owner could not read the time because the dial had faded; humidity had invaded the watch and the dial was rusted; or it is a dive watch and the dial lost luminosity over time.
Therefore, a watch from the 1960s could arrive in 2012 with original case, original movement, modified (non-original) dial and original or replacement hands. Or, it could have a replaced case and movement, but original dial and hands. Or, it may have a replacement dial and case, but an original movement. Furthermore, the case could be original with the exception of the winding crown and the chronograph pushers. These almost endless permutations are why I say that originality has many shades of grey.
One should be aware that there are innocent reasons as to why a watch may not be entirely original, but there are also nefarious reasons. The innocent reasons usually originate in the watch's owner wanting the timepiece to be restored to maximum legibility or performance and had parts swapped or modified to accomplish this goal. Watchmakers and watch brands also have their own goals when they service a watch and more often than not seek to make it as close to new as possible, even if that means updating parts. The nefarious explanation is always to deceive a potential buyer into believing the watch is something that it is not. Rolex watches with steel and gold in their cases and bracelets (also known as two-tone) are a good example of this. Because the difference in price of two-tone watches as compared to the all-stainless steel models is much higher than the cost of the gold contained in the two-tone watches, unscrupulous people often purchase the stainless steel watches and then add after-market gold parts in order to sell the watches as original two-tone Rolexes. Also, the most valuable vintage Rolex watches are often normal models with early and/or rare, original dials. Since dials often degrade over time, unscrupulous people make expert copies of these valuable dials and place them in otherwise original watches.

As I have illustrated, originality is a relative concept. The perfect vintage watch is 100 percent original, and - believe it or not - for most collectors, originality trumps appearance. If a watch is less than 100 percent original, disaggregating the watch's parts is the next step.
In order of lesser to greater importance in terms of each part's value to the overall value of the watch, here is a good guide: leather strap, crystal, buckle for leather strap, metal bracelet (in lieu of leather strap if the watch originally came on a metal bracelet), crown, hands, chronograph pushers, case including case back, movement, dial. One note regarding movements: it's normal over a long life that a movement will be serviced. If some of the parts of the movement are replaced with OEM (original equipment maker) parts, this is usually overlooked when judging originality.
As an addendum to the list above, I should note that most established brands produce extra parts for their watches and distribute these parts to their service network. When a part is replaced, it can be replaced with an identical and perfect replacement part for the original, or a replacement part that has some subtle identifying differences. The former replacement part is more valuable than the latter. There are also generic parts, like winding crowns of various sizes, watch hands, crystals and movement parts, which are manufactured by non-branded parts makers. When these are found in watches, they are assigned less value than the original parts. Like anything else, a working watch is better than a broken watch. So, if using generic parts is the only option for rendering a watch functioning, then even the generic parts are better than the alternative: a broken watch.

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